Will AI replace Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?

No exposure score can predict whether AI will replace this role. The 50/100 score means our current model estimates elevated task exposure from the sources listed on this page. It does not predict an employer decision, headcount, or an individual outcome. The task map below shows the work assessed and where human judgment remains important.

Early-career context (study ages 22-25)

This role is in the Elevated exposure band, but its assessed task mix is not automation-heavy. The study found the decline concentrated where AI was more likely to automate rather than augment work, so the headline figure should not be applied directly.

The November 2025 revision reports a 16% relative employment decline for workers ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed U.S. occupations, after firm-level controls, relative to workers in less-exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations.

Use the task map to identify durable work and the skills worth building early.

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Canaries in the Coal Mine - November 2025 revision

This is group-level U.S. payroll evidence, not a personal forecast. The authors do not claim that AI alone caused the change, and this context does not alter the exposure score.

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Role snapshot

What this role usually involves

O*NET 29.1 exact occupation

Officiate at competitive athletic or sporting events. Detect infractions of rules and decide penalties according to established regulations. Includes all sporting officials, referees, and competition judges.

Common titles

Horse Show JudgeMajor League Baseball Umpire (MLB Umpire)RefereeSports OfficialBasketball RefereeDiving Judge

O*NET job-zone preparation

Job Zone 2 · Job Zone 1-2: Very Little to Some Preparation Needed Usually requires a high school diploma or GED, though some occupations may not. Some occupations may need little or no previous experience; others require several months to a year of experience.

Broad guidance for this preparation level; exact requirements vary by role and employer.

Skills and knowledge

SpeakingCritical ThinkingJudgment and Decision MakingMonitoringActive LearningReading Comprehension

Work context

Decision latitudeFrequent contact with others

Source: O*NET 29.1 exact occupation - Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials, SOC 27-2023.00. Context describes the role; the AI-exposure score remains a separate task-exposure estimate.

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials tasks, by AI exposure

We analyzed all 16 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials tasks - 3 augmentable and 13 durable. The full task map - every task with exactly what to do about each - is in your Career Report.

Adjacent career paths

Relatedness shows how reachable a move may be. A path is labeled lower exposure only when its score is at least 6 points lower; every row shows the measured difference.

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